What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? And, what can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? This book shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling Freakonomics An idiosyncratically brilliant new book Sunday Telegraph A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected Guardian Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling Financial Times Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot Sunday Times In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point Time